2009 Predictions

Opinions

During the early part of January 2009, I made predictions for the coming year for major parts of the world but a short time later I removed them thinking they were somewhat presumptuous. Lately, I have been getting requests that I re-post them on this blog. I decided that I would put up a section for them so they could be read together. So, without further comment, here they are for your viewing:

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2009 Predictions for North America

1. The current economic situation will not get better in 2009. It will continue to remain weak without any real recovery.

2. The housing market will continue to fall. Homes will lose another 6-12% in value overall. There will be some bright spots in high growth areas of the United States but they will remain very few. Although interest rates will remain very low, access to money will be very tight so that approved home loans will be only 60% of what it was in 2007.

3. Credit card access will dry up. With new tight federal regulations on how credit is given, there will not be a great incentive for financial companies to extend easy credit. American consumers will move more and more towards debit cards to make their purchases.

4. There will be a 30% increase in personal savings in America. These savings will be placed primarily in CDs and short term financial instruments.

5. Wall Street will see a further decline. By the third quarter of 2009, the Dow will be at a 6,500 to 6,800 point level and  by the end of 2009 it will settle around the 8,000 mark.

6. Fed Chairman Bernacke will resign at the end of his term. President Obama will appoint a close economic adviser to the position.

7. Chrysler and General Motors will merge. Ford Motor will down size to 1/2 its original size. Both auto companies will be saved by their overseas production. Labor unions will not work in cooperation with the auto companies so more and more autos will be built abroad and imported into the USA.The final result will be more auto workers unemployed in the USA effectively “busting” the unions.

8. Oil prices will continue to be low during the first half of 2009 but in the second half major oil producing countries will unite to cut production by 40% and prices will rise. Prices will peak at US $120 a barrel and then settle down to US $80 a barrel.

9. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will leave her position in early 2010 under pressure from President Obama. During 2009, it will become clear that Sec. Clinton defines the true meaning of the word “maverick.” She, with the help of her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will be deciding foreign policy on their own sending false signals to leader around the world. President Obama will ask former Sec. of State Colin Powell to cross party lines and finish Clinton’s term. He will accept and will be an effective foreign policy team with Obama.

10. There will be two major terrorist attempts during 2009. One will be on a major nuclear power facility and the other will be a biological attack on a major family venue such as Disney World. Neither will be successful.

11. There will be three attempts on President Obama’s life. Although it will be said that it comes from outside the USA, it will be, in fact, internal forces within the USA. President Obama will make many enemies during his first half year in office and it will be mainly with special interests groups. He will be seriously wounded in one attack.

12. President Obama will reach an accord with Cuba and resume normal relations by the end of the year.

13. President Obama will show strong support for the Palestinians and creating an independent state. He will cut military aid to Israel by 30% and control and curtail new technology transfer to the Israelis.This will upset the American Jewish community.

14. President Obama will hold face-to-face talks with the new administration of Iran after their local elections.There will be a softening of attitude towards the US by Iran.

15. President Obama will create a new tough policy towards new and future illegals from Mexico. He will, also, establish a new amnesty program for existing illegal Mexicans in the USA. This program will allow a “fast-track” path to US citizenship within 5 years.

16. Climate change will receive less focus during 2009 due to lack of funding. The only area that will receive attention is vehicle emissions as the government forces auto makers towards hybrid and all electric cars.

17. American forces will leave Iraq and within 9 months the country will be in an internal secular war. It will be become the number one hot spot in the Middle East.

18. America will double its military forces in Afghanistan. It will become “bogged down” and it will become the new Vietnam for America. The American public will turn against the war.

19. President Obama will work behind the scenes to convince Taiwan to accept a ” one nation – two government” policy with China. It will follow the Hong Kong plan with more safeguards in place for limited permanent independence in Taiwan.

20. China will be the major funding source for the economic recovery in North America.

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2009 Predictions – Latin America

My predictions are short for this part of the world.

Having not had extensive experience in Latin America, I can only address a few areas:

1. I feel that the socialist approach to government and solving social ills will continue to grow in this part of the world. After 8 years of the American Bush Administration, the United states has lost many friends here and have gained some new enemies. I don’t see President Obama making any “head way” during the coming two years.

2. Oil will continue to make this region strong and  gain political strength. Brazil will start to extend its political power over the region and become a real “player’ in the overall global leadership structure.

3. The South American rain forests will continued to be harvested without control from local governments. We will see another 10-12% rain forest loss during the coming year.

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2009 Predictions – Europe

1. The economic recession will cause extreme discord within the European Union by the second half of 2009.

2. The Euro will continue to weaken which will cause some EU members to decide to break with the common currency and go back to their own sovereign currencies. To mention a few, Germany, Austria, and Slovenia.

3. Gordon Brown will be oustered as Prime Minister of England.His political party will suffer greatly but the shake-up will not solve economic problems only make them worse.

4. Looking to generate money for government programs, EU countries will put in place “back breaking” taxes and tariffs that will cause major problems for cross-border business.This will weaken the European Union but not destroy it. Member countries will look more “inward” and become more nationalistic in their political and economic policies.

5. Europe will be a hot bed for terrorist activities and will be the scene for, at least, two major attacks.One of these attacks will be on a French nuclear facilities. Although there will be damage there will be no radiation release. These terrorist activities will hurt the tourist industry with a 35% drop-off in tourist arrivals.

6. French President Nicolas Sarkozy will become the defacto “leader” of the European Union. He will become the main spokesman for the EU and will, in fact, bring Russia closer to the EU in, both, political and economic ties.

7. American President Barak Obama will develop very close ties with the main “players” of the EU. He will work very closely with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to tie the United States of America and the EU tightly together politically and economically.

8. President Barack Obama will repair ties with Russia and will not develop a advance defense missile system in Europe.Instead Obama will develop a new mutual treaty with Russia by allowing Russia to join NATO.

9. The Russian economy will continue to suffer from low oil prices but will be helped by economic trade agreements worked out between President Obama and President Dmitry Medvedev blessed by PM Vladimir Putin.

10. The European auto industry will improve during the second half of 2009 by the aggressive actions of American owned European auto companies to build autos and import them in the USA under the disguise of supplying “green autos” quickly to the American buyer.

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2009 Predictions – Middle East

1. February elections in Israel will see Binyamin Netanyahu being voted in while President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be voted out in Iranian elections in June.

2. After the February elections, Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities on its own without notice to America or the European Union. Iran will not retaliate due to backdoor diplomacy by President Obama. To avert a global war, Obama will have to publicly denounce Israel’s actions. This will hurt Obama’s relations with the American Jewish community.

3. President Obama will establish limited relations with Iran and install a special interests office in Tehran.

4. A strong woman’s rights movement will rise up in the Arab countries especially in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Woman will win limited rights which will allowed direct property and business ownership,the right to travel abroad alone, and more freedom of speech.

5. Infrastructure development throughout the Middle East will come to a halt by March 2009 due to lack of funding for these projects.

6. Israel will continue to conflict with the Palestinians during 2009. Hamas will continue to grow in influence and will become the defacto voice for the future of a Palestinian nation. More and more western nations will openly criticize Israel’s policies towards the Palestinians and Arab countries in general.

7. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will find that the previous cozy relationship with the White House will no longer exist. President Obama will expect the Saudis to play a great role and have a greater voice in bringing peace to the region. Saudi Arabia will be found lacking in the will power to provide that leadership. Later in the year, Saudi Arabia will ask America to remove all military troops from the Kingdom.

8. Egypt will see a change in government direction and will become more interested internal affairs and less in matters outside of the country.The relationship with Israel will chill and become distant.

9. Jordan will become America’s new closest ally in the Middle East. Jordan will replace Egypt as the new “go-to” country in the region when it comes to calming regional disputes.

10. Russia and China will develop strong relations in the region and will by year’s end have as strong a voice as the United states in shaping Middle East policy.

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2009 Predictions – Africa

1. President Robert Mugabe will either be assassinated or sent into exile during the last half of the year. Zimbabwe will fall into deeper turmoil and will become a powder keg that will affect surrounding countries.

2. HIV/Aids rates will increase 40% throughout Africa due to lessening medical aid from outside countries and increasing poverty.

3. Angola will be a bright spot as far as stability and economic growth. It will see a steady increase in foreign investment.

4. South Africa will suffer economically by steady increasing waves of refugees from Zimbabwe.They will bring pressure on the United Nations to provide humanitarian and financial aid and a political solution to the crisis.

5. Libya will work with the United States in seeking a political solution to the Middle East Crisis.

6. Drought will plague most African nations during the entire year.

7. Armed conflicts in many regions such as Darfur will continue without any improvement. The United Nations will be hard pressed to provide so many peace-keeping troops to so many different areas.

8.The diamond industry in South Africa will suffer because of a lack of global demand for diamonds due to the global economic situation.

9. Africa will look towards the United states for help solving their problems but President Obama will not be able to provide much assistance due to the economic problems at home.

10.The United States will refuse all calls by the United Nations to provide troops for peace-keeping forces in Africa.

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2009 Predictions – Asia

1. China will continue its economic growth but at a slower pace. By 2010, China will surpass Japan to be the second largest economy in the world.

2. China will be forced to tighten control on its people as the economy weakens. The government will stop migration from the rural areas into the main cities.

3. China will continue to be plagued by natural disasters. It will suffer two major earthquakes during 2009.

4. North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong-il will either die or suffer another major stroke which will leave him unable to lead the country. His two sons will fight over leadership and in the end the military leaders will hold the actual power in the country.

5. South Korea will be in political turmoil during the entire year. It will mainly be over whether to develop closer economic and political ties to North Korea.

6. Japan’s economy will continue to deepen in its stagnation.The Japanese people will turn inward and show less attention towards global problems.

7. Malaysia will become more radical in its approach towards Islam. It will become a prime money source of terrorists in the Middle east.

8. Indonesia will draw closer to the West due to a new kinship bond with President Obama. President Obama will use this relationship to develop a new closer relationship in Asia.

9. Australia will continue to suffer from droughts during the year. Economically, Australia will not suffer as much as other countries.New Zealand will only mildly suffer from the economic crisis.

10. India will continue to suffer terrorists attacks during the entire year. This will bring them to the brink of war with Pakistan. Pakistan will continue to grow to be a safe haven for terrorist groups.

11. India will suffer great losses to its economy during the entire year. Many more companies s will be found to have report false earning statements and to have falsify accounting practices. It will be seen as a less than stable place for new foreign investment. The World Bank and IMF will stop funding projects in the country.

12. India will lose over 50% of its outsourcing business to countries like the Philippines, Russia, and China.

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2009 Predictions – Philippines

1. American-Philippine relations will be “cold and distant” until there is a complete change in the Philippine Administration by the 2010 Election. I believe that President Obama will not allow himself to develop personal relationships with countries that have “questionable” governments. Philippine President Arroyo will not be invited to Washington by the new US President.

2. US Ambassador to the Philippines Kristie Kenney will be removed and replaced by President Obama by September. To American expats living in the Philippines, she has been less than a good friend. American services for residing US citizens has greatly deteriorated , especially for US military retirees, which she seems to have a great dislike. It is quite obvious that her single goal has been to win over people in Mindanao and to promote more American influence in the area. Most observers see this as a bid to put American bases in the area. I predict that President Obama will not have an agenda for the region and will put in a new ambassador who will provide a more general image for the USA.

3. The economy will slowly deteriorate over the next six months and will result in over 200,00 OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers) being sent home unemployed. The government will not be able to handle the returning citizen’s needs.

4. The government will start borrowing to handle day-to-day government services which will result in a lack of confidence in the country.This will result in the value of the peso dropping to a year-end value of 58 pesos to one US dollar.

5. This year will be a light year for typhoons. I predict that the country will have only 15 and of that only 4 will be super typhoons.

6. The price of rice will rise sharply during the second half of the year due to global rice crop failures. Other food items will rise by 3-7%.

7. There will be many attempts to change the Constitution so that elected political figures can stay in office beyond 2010 but “people power” demonstrations will stop these actions.

8. There will be two more economic scandals to hit the present government during the year but the President will be saved by her political power base in the House of Representatives.

9. Positioning will start in earnest by June for who will run for President. There will be seven persons (all current politicians) who will run for the office.

10. The greatest problems the Philippines will face this year will be “man-made” by the cancer of graft and corruption. It will cause great suffering for the common people.

Sounds pretty bad? Yes, it does but I am still proud of the country that I live in. Many of the problems are endemic of many other countries including the United States of America.

I believe in the faith of the Filipino people and their ability to overcome great obstacles in their life. This country will survive and I believe will realize its true greatness once it chooses to have leaders that truly and honestly represent the  people and not their own pockets.

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